Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.