Netherlands Polls: Major Parties and Main Issues in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are set to potentially replace the most conservative government in modern history with a more centrist and commonsense alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Snap general elections were called after the collapse of the previous government in the summer, when far-right politician Geert Wilders withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
The PVV had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks established a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies considered him too toxic for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has lived under police protection for two decades, began criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a radical 10-point immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, rejecting all refugee applicants, shutting down asylum centers and sending home all Syrian refugees.
Although backing of the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to secure the largest representation in parliament. However, major Netherlands political parties have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament, but no single party is projected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, generally an significant force on the European and global scene, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could last months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 mandates to achieve majority status. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of candidates in a country-wide district: any political group that wins 0.67% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in many European nations, Netherlands political life have been characterized in recent decades by a sharp decline in backing of the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from over four-fifths in the eighties to just over 40% now.
In the Netherlands, this trend has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a party for animals, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Primary Concerns
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It proposes, among other measures, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the army to fight "urban violence", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two parties, of the centre-right and centre-left, are closely competing behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but dropped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
Nevertheless, under its young leader, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is projected to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Headed by the seasoned former European commissioner its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people annually in its platform.
Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is projected to increase representation – capturing up to 17, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a campaign focused on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is predicted to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its head, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decline. It is proposing business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The anti-establishment, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the once popular, now controversy-plagued FvD – and appears to be profiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both other partners in the ill-fated outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are expected to decline, with the centrist party not even guaranteed legislative seats.
The top issues currently have been immigration, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – protests against planned emergency reception centres for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the nation is short of 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are feasible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the government program. This often requires months.
Multiple options look possible, typically including a combination of parties from moderate left and center right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus Democrats 66 and one or more minor groups possibly incorporating JA21.
